Graphing Digital Assets
Month in Review — April 2025
“Digital Gold” Amidst a Gold Rush?
April was a tough month for traditional risk assets. As geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty surged, equities continued to fall (S&P 500 TR down 0.67%). In contrast, gold shined—up 3.52% on the month—as capital fled toward safer ground. Central banks accelerated gold purchases to diversify away from the weakening U.S. dollar, fueling some of the largest single-day gold gains since the 2008 financial crisis.
Figure 1 highlights the history of gold’s performance over previous market cycles. Notably, in April, gold posted four days of 2%+ daily gains within a 10-day window, a pattern previously seen during acute stress episodes such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 1980’s stagflation. Central bank demand and dollar weakness were key drivers.
The shift wasn’t limited to gold. Bitcoin, long described as “digital gold,” also showed signs of decoupling from equities and aligning more closely with safe haven behavior (up 14.11% on the month). Its 30-day correlation with gold rose through April, while its correlation with equities fell, echoing our view that bitcoin could reassert itself as a store of value during downturns.
Momentum may also be building beneath the surface. Historically, bitcoin has responded positively to increases in global liquidity. Looking at M2 money supply growth since 2024 and applying a 78-day lag, experts are suggesting that the M2’s significant growth early in the year suggests upward price movement ahead (Figure 2). Many investors now view early April as a bottom for bitcoin, both technically and fundamentally, with a consistent upward trend in the months to come.
So, while some argue gold is nearing “overbought” levels, bitcoin may still have room to run. With rising institutional interest, rebounding correlation to gold, and supportive liquidity trends, bitcoin is once again positioning itself not just as a risk asset, but as an alternative reserve asset for a new macro regime.
Figure 1
Source: Investing.com as of April 30, 2025.
Figure 2
Source: Investing.com and https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS as of April 30, 2025.
It’s Acquisition Season
This crypto market cycle is being defined by a surge in M&A activity, with acquisitions of digital-asset/blockchain-related companies taking center stage. According to Social Capital’s founder, Chamath Palihapitiya, “Crypto acquisitions and public listings in the U.S. reached $8.2 billion across 88 transactions in the first four months of 2025, already tripling the total value of all 2024 deal-making.” Figure 3 underscores the recent growth of M&A transactions.
Historic Acquisitions: Ripple agreed to acquire prime broker Hidden Road for $1.25 billion. Ripple also reportedly offered between $4-5 billion for stablecoin issuer Circle, which would have marked the largest acquisition in the space to date had Circle not declined the bid, citing undervaluation. Other notable deals include Republic’s announcement to acquire crypto trading firm INX Digital for up to $60 million, Magic Eden’s plan to acquire crypto trading app Slingshot, and Riot Platforms’ $185 million acquisition of Rhodium’s mining operations to scale its own infrastructure. Most recently, at time of publishing, Coinbase announced that it is entering into an agreement to acquire Deribit, a milestone transaction for the digital asset industry.
Digital Asset Treasury Updates: Strategy added 25,370 bitcoin to its balance sheet in April, valued at $2.39 billion at April’s close. Metaplanet also acquired 954 bitcoin, worth $89.87 million. Meanwhile, Solana is emerging as a corporate treasury reserve asset alongside BTC. GSR led a $100 million private placement into Upexi, supporting the company’s transition to a digital asset-based treasury strategy through SOL purchases and staking. Most recently, in May, Classover announced a $400 million equity facility to fund its SOL-based treasury strategy.
New Company Launch: Tether, Softbank Group, and Jack Mallers announced the launch of TwentyOne, a bitcoin-focused SPAC in collaboration with Cantor Equity Partners, with the plan to accumulate more bitcoin and and increase the number of bitcoin per share, starting with 42,000 bitcoin.
While additional acquisitions are rumored, venture capital activity is also rising. Q1 2025 marked the highest level of crypto VC investment since Q3 2022 (Figure 4). With a pro-crypto U.S. administration in place, this could be just the beginning.
Figure 3
Source: Architect Partners Crypto M&A Tracker from “Architect Insights: Q1 2025 Crypto M&A and Financing Report.” Not all financing transactions disclose consideration paid, therefore numbers are understated.
Figure 4
Source: Insights VC “Q1 2025 VC Report: Inside U.S. & Crypto Deal Flow,” April 17, 2025.
This Cycle’s Structural Shift
April marks just over a year since the last Bitcoin halving. Historically, bitcoin’s price has followed a four-year cyclical pattern, heavily influenced by the halving’s impact on supply dynamics. However, not all cycles are the same and we can expect inevitable pattern shifts as the digital asset market grows.
Varying Timeframes for Cycle Peaks: Each cycle has reached its peak at a different point post-halving. Historical data shows there’s no fixed timeline for when market tops occur, suggesting that, even a year after the last halving, there’s still room and time for upside in the current cycle (Figure 5).
Diminishing Returns and Smoother Drawdowns: There is a consistent pattern of diminishing returns with each cycle. As bitcoin’s market cap grows, each cycle has delivered smaller percentage gains, but also less severe drawdowns. With each cycle starting from a higher price base, experts expect this pattern to continue as bitcoin price continues its long-term upward trajectory, with returns and volatility moderating over time as adoption deepens and the asset matures.
The Evolution of Bitcoin Holders: Earlier cycles were dominated by retail participants and early adopters. Today’s investor base includes pensions, sovereign wealth funds, and even nation-states like the U.S. government, who hold material amounts of bitcoin. This long-term, less speculative cohort may reduce bitcoin reflexivity, creating a more stable demand floor and helping to normalize bitcoin as a strategic asset.
Treasury Accumulation and the “Synthetic Halving” Effect: A key differentiator this cycle is corporate treasury adoption. Firms are increasingly treating bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, effectively removing supply from the market. Strategy has led this trend, amassing 555,450 BTC (as of this writing) and, in 2025 alone, reportedly acquired nearly twice the number of newly mined coins (Figure 6). This creates a “synthetic halving” effect, amplifying the scarcity created by the actual halving event. As long-term holders absorb more supply and institutional demand accelerates, fewer coins remain available for open-market purchase and upward price pressure intensifies
Bitcoin’s cyclical DNA remains intact, but the underlying market structure has evolved. Slower reflexivity, deeper institutional buy-in, and new scarcity dynamics suggest the asset is maturing. As we progress through this cycle, investors may find that the biggest story isn’t just price—it’s the evolution of bitcoin itself.
Figure 5
Source: BTC price from Investing.com as of April 30, 2025.
Figure 6
Source: Bitcoin Treasuries by BitBo and Blockchain.com as of April 30, 2025.