Graphing Digital Assets
Month in Review — May 2025
Betting Big on Bitcoin in Vegas
The Samara team attended the annual Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas the last week of May, surrounded by Bitcoin enthusiasts who were particularly encouraged as this came less than a week after bitcoin reached its new all-time high of nearly $112K on May 22.
As always, the conference featured a high-profile lineup of speakers, among them prominent CEOs, policymakers, and politicians. Below are some highlights from the main stage.
On Capitol Hill:
U.S. Vice President JD Vance reaffirmed his support for digital assets, framing bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and poor governance in the private sector. He emphasized that digital assets are now part of the mainstream economy and urged lawmakers to pass the GENIUS Act, stating that “dollar-pegged stablecoins are only going to help the American economy.”
Senator Cynthia Lummis provided an update on ongoing legislative efforts, highlighting the market structure bill and reintroducing a proposal for a 1 million BTC national reserve.
Bitcoin Accumulation Trends:
Pakistan announced plans to establish a national strategic bitcoin reserve.
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino unveiled the firm’s intention to invest billions into bitcoin mining, aiming to become the world’s largest miner by the end of 2025.
Price Predictions:
The Winklevoss twins projected bitcoin could one day reach $1 million, noting that “orange is the new gold.”
Donald Trump Jr. forecasted a $175,000 price target by next year, while Eric Trump declared bitcoin was headed “to the moon ... everyone wants it, and nobody wants to get rid of it.” Market data supports this sentiment, with balances on exchanges falling to a new multi-year low of just under 2.4 million BTC (Fig. 1).
The “Saylor Effect”:
Michael Saylor, one of the main attractions, described bitcoin as ”perfected capital” and urged corporations to adopt bitcoin treasury strategies, encouraging them to “create the best company you can create within the rules of your market.”
Saylor cited companies like MetaPlanet as exemplifying the Strategy playbook. This shift in corporate behavior is quantifiable: River Financial reported in May that businesses are the largest net buyers of bitcoin year-to-date, with Strategy accounting for 77% of that growth (Fig. 2).
The week in Las Vegas underscored bitcoin’s deepening institutional appeal, growing political backing, and broadening mainstream adoption of the asset class.
Figure 1
Source: CryptoQuant, for the three years ended June 9, 2025.
Figure 2
Published by River Financial May 12, 2025. Sources: River, BitcoinTreasuries, WuBlockchain.
*Other includes change in bitcoin to be mined, bitcoin held smart contracts, and estimated bitcoin lost.
Spring Thaw: Digital Assets Reawaken
After several months of declining volumes and subdued performance, digital asset markets staged a notable rebound in May. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $111,891.30, briefly surpassing Amazon in market capitalization, a symbolic milestone signaling broad investor optimism. Bitcoin returned 11.11% for the month, while ether outpaced with a 41.00% gain. Altcoins also posted positive results (SPCLXM +5.73%).
Trading activity picked up meaningfully. Spot volumes across centralized exchanges rose 14.84%, reversing a four-month downtrend. Open interest in CME bitcoin futures surged 30.55%, and basis yields are trending higher again (Fig. 3), indicating increased demand for leverage, often a signal of reawakened risk appetite.
Concurrently, stablecoin supply reached new highs, expanding 2.33% month-over-month (Fig. 4), reflecting fresh capital entering the ecosystem. U.S. spot bitcoin and ether ETFs also increased activity, with $5.25 billion and $0.56 billion in net flows, respectively. DeFi total value locked (TVL) jumped 14.11%. Traditional markets joined the rally as the S&P 500 TR Index gained 6.29%, recovering from April’s tariff-driven pullback and buoyed by strong earnings from large-cap tech.
Additional tailwinds emerged throughout May. CME Group’s May 19 launch of XRP futures marked another step toward institutionalizing crypto derivatives beyond bitcoin and ether. Separately, the initiation of FTX creditor repayments helped remove a long-standing overhang, potentially restoring confidence in centralized platforms and counterparties.
Taken together, the rise in spot trading volumes, futures activity, stablecoin supply, and ETF inflows points to renewed engagement across digital asset investing.
For allocators, this environment supports the return of strategy dispersion and creates a more favorable backdrop for capital deployment, particularly into well-managed, trading-oriented digital asset strategies such as market-neutral, basis, and volatility-driven approaches. We expect this reengagement to carry forward in the coming months.
Figure 3
Source: “Coinbase Weekly: Great Expectations,” May 30, 2025.
Figure 4
Source: DeFiLlama as of May 31, 2025.
U.S. Regulation Taking Shape
May brought a wave of meaningful regulatory developments across the U.S. digital asset landscape, reflecting a growing convergence between federal clarity, state-level momentum, and institutional engagement.
At the federal level, lawmakers introduced the bipartisan Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act on May 29, seeking to define the roles of the SEC and CFTC while proposing a provisional registration framework for digital asset intermediaries. That same day, the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance clarified that native protocol staking on proof-of-stake networks does not constitute a securities offering under federal law, a long-awaited signal that removes uncertainty for service providers and may pave the way for staking-enabled ETF products.
The potential for ETF issuers to incorporate staking rewards could unlock a new wave of investor interest, particularly significant for spot ETH ETFs, which recorded their first meaningful inflows in months in May.
Momentum also accelerated around stablecoin legislation. The GENIUS Act advanced in the Senate with bipartisan support, proposing a federal framework to regulate payment stablecoins, including reserve standards, issuer qualifications, and oversight responsibilities. If passed, this legislation would more closely align with the STABLE Act advancing in the House, setting the stage for reconciled legislation later this year.
Moreover, stablecoin issuer Circle went public last week, with its shares soaring 167% on debut and nearly 350% at time of writing, further underscoring market confidence in regulated crypto financial infrastructure.
At the state level, five U.S. states—Texas, Arizona, Nebraska, New Hampshire, and Oregon—passed or enacted digital asset legislation in May. New measures included the creation of bitcoin reserves, legal recognition of crypto as collateral, and formation of blockchain working groups. Nebraska passed a fraud prevention law tailored to digital records, while Montana prohibited the use of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) by state agencies. Michigan, in a symbolic gesture, declared May 13 as Digital Asset Awareness Day. Senator Cynthia Lummis, speaking at the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas, emphasized that such state-led initiatives are crucial complements to federal action.
These coordinated developments point to a more constructive regulatory environment – one that reduces legal ambiguity, supports product innovation, and fosters institutional participation across staking, stablecoins, and broader digital asset markets.
Figure 5a
Figure 5b
Source: Cointelegraph, “Bitcoin all-time high, five US states enact crypto laws,” May 31, 2025. Data from Bitcoin Laws.